The Issue:
Beijing is playing a deft three-stroke political strategy to ascend as the dominant power throughout the Pacific. China's strategy:
using the sophisticated weapons of former rival, Russia to achieve an unprecedented naval, air and strategic expansion;
provoking domestic and regional fear of a resurgent militaristic Japan, by threatening Tokyo into a more aggressive independent military posture, made worse by Tokyo’s lack of willingness to deal openly with past historical tragedy;
and luring regional dictators into alliances based on the perceived decline of a naive United States, and militarily humiliated in the Middle East.
Above all, the “Japan card” may be Beijing’s strongest ploy. Japan has legitimate reasons to fear for national survival in face of Chinese, Russian and North Korean weapons of mass destruction. However, an arrogant lack of diplomacy and tact by both Tokyo and Washington hinders their ability to explain Japan’s vulnerability to skeptical Asian neighbors with long historical memories. This is also compounded by Japan’s failure to openly come to terms with its imperialist past.
American officials should also think carefully about what type of explosive Pandora’s Box may be opened. South Korean officials have warned that the US may not be able to moderate Japanese military behavior if Tokyo no longer respects Washington. In the November 9, 2005 Singapore Straits Times, Japan’s recent Deputy Foreign Minister Hitoshi Tanaka told reporters he does not believe the United States should be invited to inaugural East Asia Summit. He stated, “I do not think the United States is committed to East Asia community building…I do not think that the United States is a member of the East Asia Community.”
The Growing China-Russia Threat to Japan:
Japan, with its lack of natural resources and vast sea lanes of communication to defend, is as vulnerable as any country in East Asia. Almost all of Japan’s energy imports must come past the sea lanes alongside the Philippines and Taiwan, where Beijing is increasing its air and naval superiority. On the other hand, our allies in Manila and Taipei have fallen further behind in airborne and seaborne defense capabilities. China has repeatedly threatened Japan over Taiwan, as a, “life or death issue.”
A growing flash point for conflict is being caused by disputed territorial claims in the East China Sea, where both China and Japan have been drilling for natural gas. Associated Press reported on October 28, 2005, “in a muscular display of its rising military and economic might China deployed a fleet of five warships near the Chunxiao gas field in the East China Sea.” More recently, the Japan Times reported that between April and October, 2005 Japanese fighter planes have scrambled 30 times to turn away Chinese war planes approaching Japanese airspace, more than twice the number of incidents that occurred in 2004. Many of these flights were near the natural gas sites in the East China Sea. In addition, another 72 scramblings of Japanese fighter planes during that same period were caused by Russian military planes approaching Japanese air space. Japan and Russia also have disputed island claims off Hokkaido.
On October 20, the official Chinese Xinhua news agency reported at the Second Sino-Russian Security Talks in Beijing, both sides agreed to, “strengthen coordination in major strategic security issues.” And, “to give stronger support to each other in major issues involving state sovereignty and national security.” In a November, 2005, research paper, “China’s Quiet Juggernaut.” for the Hudson Institute, Mary Fitzgerald quoted a Russian official who warned the Chinese foresee a time when they can push American military power out of Asia. “[Beijing believes] all of Asia belongs to China -- and not only Asia.”
Japanese officials also see North Korea’s nuclear weapons program as an extension of Chinese power projection. The 1998 launching of a North Korean ballistic missile that flew over Japan, is believed to be the event that triggered Japan’s military resurgence among most politicians and a growing number of the public. This duplicity by Beijing in the North Korean weapons of mass destruction was identified in the 2005 annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The report cited recent testimony by US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lowell Jacoby, who stated Chinese companies continue to provide North Korea and Pakistan with weapons of mass destruction and related hardware. He added that in the past, the Chinese government had assisted North Korean ships and planes involved in arms proliferation.
Japan’s In-Your-Face New Leaders:
The perilous security threat to Japan has led to the rise of in-your-face nationalist political leaders vying to replace Prime Minister Koizumi in the September 2006 national election. The front runner is Shinzo Abe, the current Chief of Cabinet to Junichiro Koizumi. The articulate and outspoken Abe has vowed to keep up the controversial visits to Yazukuni Shrine, for Japan's war dead, without removal of the 14 Class A War Criminals memorialized there. The November 10, 2005 Japan Times reports, Abe’s popularity rose through his no-nonsense handling of North Korea over the nuclear missiles and kidnapped Japanese civilians issues. While Mr. Abe has admitted publicly that Japan, “caused tremendous suffering and damage to the people of Asia,” during World War II, he has led no effort to remove the 14 war criminals from Yazukuni.
The second most prominent candidate to replace Koizumi is current Foreign Minister Taro Aso. The divisive Mr. Aso is famous for his many controversial statements supporting discrimination against outcast people in Japanese society and homeless people. He infuriated all Koreans by defending Japan’s brutal occupation of Korea where military occupiers forced Koreans to adopt Japanese names. It is curious that US officials and other allies of Japan did not more assertively question how a man with Aso’s sharp-tongue and profound biases could be appointed the country’s Chief Diplomat.
China’s anti-Japanese Psychological Warfare:
Beijing has combined military threats with government-orchestrated and internationally publicized anti-Japanese demonstrations that have infuriated all Japanese. Beijing, as part of its regional strategy, has whipped up painful memories of World War II across the region. The Chinese leaders’ skillful anti-Japanese campaign is rooted in nationalistic manipulation of a domestic population who loathe corrupt Communist officials. It is also geared toward forming anti-democratic political and military alliances with countries in North and South Asia who suffered under 19th and 20th Century Japanese military domination. The political move to abandon the “pacifism” clause in the Japanese Constitution and the adoption of new national military plan has caused fear in key strategic countries. Beijing also has buttered the palms of regional leaders who support its policies and have threatened others with economic penalties who resist Beijing’s emerging imperial wishes.
On November 13, 2005, the Washington Post quoted Ms. Yang Soon Im, Chairwoman of the Seoul-based Association of Pacific War Victims and Bereaved Families, an organization suing Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi over his visits to the Yakasuni Shrine for Japanese soldiers who died in battle. “The far right is taking over in Japan,” she stated. “They are trying to justify and beautify Japan’s past invasions. They do not understand how this is isolating Japan from world opinion.”
The fear of Japan’s racial xenophobia was underscored by a visit to Tokyo and Hokkaido by United Nations Special rapporteur, Doudou Diene. The Kyodo news service reported on November 8, 2005, Diene publicly raised then issue of Japan’s traditional Ainu people, who are treated as outcasts. He also raised discrimination against ethnic minorities, such Korean and Chinese immigrants, and new guest workers from other regions of the world.
US Policy:
The US, on the other hand, has not worked with Tokyo to adequately consult with and educate Asian neighbors on the legitimate needs for Japan’s defense modernization. Prominent Japanese politicians backed by culturally and historically insensitive American diplomats and defense officials – and politicians influenced by Big Business -- have not adequately articulated the lack of human or social decency inside of China, much less the growing military threat. The new US-Japan Defense Agreement was announced before the international media in Tokyo on October 30, 2005. It sent shivers of Imperial resurgence throughout the region. The presiding American official, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, added to the fire. He is seen as a boisterous bully – or worse – in many areas of the world. Regional fear of a resurgent Imperial Japan, combined with ongoing loss of respect for US leaders caused by Iraq, has turned Korea and increasing numbers of Southeast Asian countries to begin leaning politically and economically toward China.
What Can be Done?
The US and Japan must impress upon Asia the need for a strong defense against the growing threat of nuclear war or a conventional war that would devastate the region socially and economically.
Japan, especially the rising generation of aggressive political leaders, must be more attuned to the strength that comes from showing one’s neighbors some meaningful accountability for past transgressions. There must be a regional consensus – even if that excludes the political manipulators in Beijing -- that World War II is finally over. Necessary apologies should be made and textbooks should be honest. Japanese leaders should either visit other shrines to the war dead, or remove the 14 Class A war criminals from Yasukuni Shrine.
American leaders must speak with one voice about the threat to international security caused by the Beijing-Moscow-North Korean military alliance. The charade of the “6-Party Talks,” where Beijing has duplicitously backed North Korea, must be ended. The massive violations of human rights in China must be consistently addressed by the entire Free World.
Although Japan’s military preparedness is essential and legitimate, the Bush Administration should not be perceived as “dumping” Asian regional security into the hands of a xenophobic Japan because we are being drained in the Middle East conflict. On the others hand, US and Japanese government agencies and non-governmental organizations should work together as leaders in economic and social development throughout the Pacific region.
