Editor’s Note: The public threat of a nuclear first-strike against the United States was voiced by Major General Zhu Chenghu, Dean of China’s National Defense University, and was reported on July 15 in the Financial Times of London and the Asian Wall Street Journal. Zhu’s comments stunned the audience attending an event sponsored by the Better Hong Kong Foundation.
Speaking on a potential conflict over Taiwan, General Zhu’s stated, “If the Americans draw their [non-nuclear] missiles and position-guided weapons on Chinese territory, we will have to respond with nuclear weapons… We will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xian. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of their cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”
This is not the first time that a high ranking Chinese military officer has openly threatened a nuclear attack against the United States. Could a Chinese senior general make an independent geo-strategic threat without support of his superiors? Is such a PLA nuclear attack on US soil possible?
Calculated Public Threats: A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed Gen. Zhu was speaking independently. However, it is well known in military circles that Chinese senior officers are highly disciplined whose statements only reflect the policy views of other senior PLA officers. A Pentagon official speaking to Bill Gertz of the Washington Times [July 16, 2005] stated, “Zhu’s comments are a signal to all Asia that China does not fear US forces.” This is especially significant at a time when US policy makers are pressuring China over currency revaluation and imbalance of bilateral trade issues.
PLA Nuclear Capability: During the past decade, despite no immediate military threat, China’s PLA has conducted an unprecedented nuclear weapons modernization in the size and quality of its arsenal. This build-up has been aided by significant sales by Russia of strategic weapons systems from land, air force and sea-based platforms, as well stolen dual-use technologies and ill-advised sales by US aero-space companies. Although the Pentagon has no accurate figures on the expansion of PLA nuclear forces, US estimates that short- and medium-range missiles not withstanding, China has between 45 and 57 ballistic missiles that can reach US cities. In addition, some of these weapons have MIRV capability that can deliver multiple warheads from one missile.
First-Strike Modernization: In June, 2005 the PLA made a major advance in first-strike nuclear capability with a successful submarine launching of the JL-2 MIRVed ballistic missile. With a range of 6,000 miles, the JL-2 can hit targets in the United States from Chinese territorial water. This development followed the December 2004 launching of the new Type-094 submarine-launched ballistic missile. In addition, the PLA is believed to be developing maneuverable strategic warheads potentially capable of evading US missile defense systems. In addition, Russia has been assisting the PLA with miniature anti-satellite weapons that could blind US tactical forces and strategic early-warning and missile-defense systems.
Strategic Partnership with Russia: China and Russia have signed a number of military agreements, as cryptically reported during the past three years in official Chinese and Russian news sources, that describe anti-US pacts that call for Russia to help defend China in the case of a war over Taiwan. During 2005, after years of inactivity, Russia has resumed testing strategic weapons that could be used against the United States. At present the two Eurasian powers are preparing to conduct a bilateral military exercise in which Russia will utilize nuclear bombers.
