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October 24, 2006 | Editor Al Santoli
THE ISSUE:
While America remains bogged down in precarious regional wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and faces an unaccomodating North Korea and Iran, U.S. leaders are reaching out to Beijing as an "ally." However, China continues an unprecedented military offensive buildup that principally targets the United States and Japan. Would Beijing risk confrontation with a technologically advanced Power such as the United States?
In the October 18 and 19, 2006 Asia Times Online, Philippine Brigadier General Victor Corpus, one of the most insightful military officers in Southeast Asia, analyzes China's current war-fighting doctrine and seminal alliances with Russia and Iran. Chinese military documents and actions show Beijing's confidence that a future confrontation could be fought and won through attacking America's vital domestic and military infrastructure. This includes electronic and cyber communications, oil and gas supplies, the collapse of the US dollar as well as strategic and tactical surprise attacks on US air, sea and space-based military capabilities.
Due to the significance and urgent insight of General Corpus's assessment, and the high regard that the CIF editor has for the author, the article is hereby condensed for our readers' benefit:
Introduction:
"Noted Chinese theorist on modern warfare, Chang Mengxiong, compared China's form of fighting to "a Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body points who can bring an opponent to his knees with a minimum of movements". It is like key acupuncture points in ancient Chinese medicine. America should be prepared to defend against and counter the following types of asymmetrical strikes.
1. Attack on the US dollar:
"One of the pillars propping up US superpower status and worldwide economic dominance is the dollar being accepted as the predominant reserve currency. Central banks of various countries have to stock up dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil requirements and other major commodities in US dollars. This US economic strength, however, is a double-edged sword and can turn out to be America's economic Achilles' heel. Significantly, China, Russia and Iran possess the power to cause a panicked international run on the US dollar and force its collapse.
China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves in the world, accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and expected to exceed a trillion dollars by the end of 2006 - a first in world history. A decision by China to shift a major portion of its reserve to the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central banks to follow suit. Nobody would want to be left behind holding a vault full of dollars rapidly turning worthless. This type of sabotage could be strongly reinforced by the latent anger of many countries in the Middle East, Eurasia, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America. International opinion polls show that many nations silently abhor the pugnacious arrogance displayed by the lone Superpower in the exercise of its unilateral and militaristic foreign policies. They may be content to dump the dollar and watch the lone Superpower squirm and collapse.
The danger of the dollar collapsing is intensified by the mounting US current account deficit, which sky-rocketed to $900 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005. This figure is 7% of US gross domestic product (GDP), the largest in US history. The current account deficit reflects the imbalance of US imports to its exports. These record deficits in external trade and current accounts mean that the US has to borrow from foreign lenders (mostly Japan and China) $900 billion annually or nearly $2.5 billion every single day to finance the gap between payments and receipts from the rest of the world.
The International Monetary Fund has warned: "The US is on course to increase its net external liabilities to around 40% of its GDP within the next few years - an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country." Such a state of economic affairs cannot be sustained for long, and the stability of the dollar is put in grave danger. One push and the dollar will plunge into free-fall. That push can come from China, Russia or Iran.
We have seen what China can do. How can Russia or Iran, in turn, cause a dollar downfall? Changing the oil-purchasing currency to the Euro is one means. In addition, on September 2, 2003, Russia and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on oil and gas cooperation. Russia and the Saudis have agreed "to exercise joint control over the dynamics of prices for raw materials on foreign markets". The two biggest oil and gas producers, in cooperation, say, with Iran, could control oil production and sales to keep the price of oil relatively high, destabilizing the international economy.
Russia is now the world's biggest energy supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia in energy exports measured in barrel oil equivalent or barrels of energy per day [boe] (13.3 million boe per day for Russia vs 10 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia). Russia has the biggest gas reserves in the world. Iran, on the other hand, runs second in the world to Russia in gas reserves, and also ranks among the top oil producers. If and when either Russia or Iran, or both, shift away from a rapidly declining dollar in energy transactions, many oil producers will follow suit. These include Venezuela, Indonesia, Sudan, Nigeria and the Central Asian Republics.
There is a good chance that even Saudi Arabia and the other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East wouldn't want to be left with fast-shrinking dollars when the shift from petro-dollar to euro-dollar occurs. The US will eventually be left with a dollar that is practically worthless. The whole US economy crushing down with it - a scene reminiscent of the collapse of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001. But this crisis would be a thousand times more devastating.
2. Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP) attack
“China and Russia are two potential US adversaries that have the capability for this kind of paralyzing attack. An EMP attack can either come from an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), a long-range cruise missile, or an orbiting satellite armed with a nuclear or non-nuclear EMP warhead. A nuclear burst of one (or more) megaton some 400 kilometers over the central United States can blanket the whole continental US with electro-magnetic pulse in less than one second.
An EMP attack will damage all electrical grids on the US mainland. It will disable computers and other similar electronic devices with microchips. Most banks, businesses and industries will shut down. The entire US economy could practically grind to a halt. Satellites within line of sight of the EMP burst will also be damaged, adversely affecting military command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR). Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles will be rendered unserviceable in their silos. Anti-ballistic missile defenses will suffer the same fate. In short – total blackout.
If the US retaliates with strategic missiles, China and Russia now have the means of striking back with submarine-launched ballistic missiles with the same or even more devastating results. China's strategy of "active defense" mandates: When war with the US becomes imminent, China will not allow itself to be targeted first. It will seize the initiative as mandated by its doctrine by striking first. China has repeatedly announced that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. However, as an old Chinese saying goes: "There can never be too much deception in war."
3. “Assassins’ mace” vs US aircraft carriers:
"Aircraft carrier battle groups are the mainstay of US military and protect commerce supremacy which is primarily through ocean-transit. They serve as America’s chief instrument for global power projection and world dominance. In this capability, the US has no equal. At the moment, the US maintains a total of 12 aircraft carrier battle groups. In comparison, China has none.
However, China’s strategy in defeating the superior by the inferior is shashaojian or the "assassin’s mace". "Mace" is not only a blinding spray; it is also a meaner and deadlier weapon, a spiked war club of ancient times used to knock out an adversary with one blow. The spikes of the modern Chinese mace may well spell the end for aircraft carriers.
The first of these spikes consists of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles (modified and improved DF 21s/CSS-5 and DF 15s) with terminally guided maneuverable re-entry vehicles with circular error probability of 10 meters. DF 21s/CSS-5s can hit slow-moving targets at sea up to 2,500km away.
The second spike is an array of supersonic and highly accurate cruise missiles, some with range of 300km or more, that can be delivered by submarines, aircraft, surface ships or even common trucks (which are ideal for use in terrain like that of Iran along the Persian Gulf). These supersonic cruise missiles travel at more than twice the speed of sound (mach 2.5), or faster than a rifle bullet. They can be armed with conventional, anti-radiation, thermobaric, or electro-magnetic pulse warheads, or even nuclear warheads if need be. The Aegis missile defense system and the Phalanx Close-in Defense weapons of the US Navy are ineffective against these supersonic cruise missiles.
A barrage of these cruise missiles, followed by land-based intermediate- or short-range ballistic missiles with terminal guidance systems, could wreak havoc on an aircraft carrier battle group. Whether there are seven or 15 carrier battle groups, it will not matter, for China has enough ballistic and cruise missiles to destroy them all.
The first and second spikes of the "assassin’s mace" are sufficient to render the aircraft carrier battle groups obsolete. But there is a third spike which is equally dreadful. This is the deadly SHKVAL or "Squall" rocket torpedo developed by Russia and passed on to China. It is like an under-water missile. Its high speed makes evasive maneuvers by carriers or nuclear submarines highly difficult. It is truly a submarine and carrier buster.
The "assassin’s mace" has still more spikes. The fourth spike consists of extra-large, bottom-rising, rocket-propelled sea mines laid by submarines along the projected paths of advancing carrier battle groups. These sea mines are designed specifically for targeting aircraft carriers. They can be grouped in clusters so that they will hit the carriers in barrages.
The final spike of the mace is a fleet of old fighter aircraft (China has thousands of them) modified as unmanned combat aerial vehicles fitted with extra fuel tanks and armed with stand-off anti-ship missiles. They are also packed with high explosives so that after firing off their precision-guided anti-ship missiles on the battle group, they will then finish their mission by dive-bombing "kamikaze" style into their targets.
If we now combine the mace as a means of blinding an adversary and the mace as a spiked war club, one can see the complete picture of how China will use the "assassin’s mace." Although China does not possess a single operational aircraft carrier, it has converted their entire navy into a "virtual aircraft carrier" that is unsinkable and capable of devastating aircraft carrier battle groups that the US and its allies can muster."
4. Cyber attack:
"America is the most advanced country in the world in the field of information technology (IT). Practically all of its industries, manufacturing, business and finance, telecommunications, key government services and defense establishment rely heavily on computers and computer networks. But this heavy dependence on computers is a double-edged sword. It has thrust the US economy and defense establishment ahead of all other countries; but it has also created an Achilles' heel that can potentially bring the superpower to its knees with a few keystrokes on a dozen or so laptops.
China's new concept of a "people's war" includes IT warriors, not only from its military which is more than 2-million strong. China’s leaders have also aggressively recruited from the general citizenry for student and professional "patriotic hackers" to supplement its military cyber warrior force. If we add the hackers and information warriors from Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria and other countries sympathetic to China, the cyber attack on the US would be formidable, indeed.
If a major conflict erupts between China and America, myriad computers will be engaged to hack America's military establishment; banking system; stock exchange; defense industries; telecommunication system; power grids; water system; oil and gas pipeline system; air traffic and train traffic control systems; ballistic missile system, and other systems that prop up or defend the American way of life.
5 Interdiction of US foreign oil supply:
"America is now 75% dependent on foreign imported oil. About 23.5% of America's imported oil supply comes from the Persian Gulf. To cut off this oil supply, Iran can simply mine the Strait of Hormuz, using bottom-rising sea mines. Iran has the world's fourth-largest inventory of sea mines, after China, Russia and the US.
Combined with sea mines, Iran can also block the narrow strait with supersonic cruise missiles such as Yakhonts, Moskits, Granits and Brahmos. These weapons are deployed on Abu Musa Island and all along the rugged and mountainous coastline of Iran fronting the Persian Gulf. Such action can bring America to its knees. Not only America but Japan (which imports 90% of its oil supply) and Europe (which derives about 60% of its oil supply from the Persian Gulf ) will be adversely affected.
A single blow from Iran or China or Russia, or a combination of the three at the Strait of Hormuz and other strategic locations can paralyze America. In addition, Chinese and Russian submarines can stop the flow of oil to the US and Japan by interdicting oil tanker traffic coming from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. On the other hand, US naval supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it will surely drive oil prices sky high. Prolonged high oil prices can, in turn, trigger inflation in the US and a sharp decline of the dollar, possibly even a dollar free-fall, impacting the entire US economy and national security system.
6. Diplomatic and Energy Isolation:
"In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed from its own weight, the US emerged as the sole superpower in the world. At that crucial period, it would have been a great opportunity for the US to establish its global leadership. With the world's biggest economy, its control of international financial institutions, its huge lead in science and technology (especially information technology) and its unequaled military might, America could have seized the moment to establish a truly American Century.
Unfortunately, such was not to be. If there was any effort at the exercise of soft [economic and political] power at all, it was minimal. In fact, it is not America which is practicing soft power in diplomacy but a rising power in the East - China. China has been busy in the past decade or so exercising soft power – economic, political, aid and bribery -- in many countries in Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, winning most of the countries in those regions to Beijing’s side. Through the use of soft power, China has created a de facto global united front under its silent, low-key leadership, especially in African countries that possess scarce natural resources essential for industrial production."
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